American inflation postpones bets on interest cuts

Discover the key events and indicators shaping the markets this week! From corporate balance sheets to economic data, we keep an eye on everything. This week, events such as the balance sheet of important companies stand out, including the giant NVIDIA and Vale, as well as economic indicators, such as the Eurozone CPI and Germany’s GDP. At the same time, we look at the performance of assets such as gold and the Euro/Dollar pair, which offer valuable insights into trends and potential investment opportunities.

American inflation heats up and postpones bets on interest rate cuts.

It seemed to be a meteor falling on the stock markets, and in the end, those who eased the panic were precisely the members of the FED. Right after a payroll much higher than expected, showing the strength and resilience of the American market, last week we had two inflation data, also higher than expected. It wasn’t much of a difference, but both the CPI and PPI in January were slightly higher than expected, which within the current context ends up being a huge source of speculation for the market. The good news is that the FED members themselves calmed the stress, saying that the data were not surprising and that it is necessary to be calm with inflation, that the path to the 2% target could be bumpy and that plans will not change for cause of a month outside the curve. They also added that the inflation data used by the FED is the PCE, which will only be released on February 29th. And the bad news is that, despite the post-stress relief on the stock exchanges, bets for an interest rate cut in May were rolled over to June on the CME, with 64% of bets for rate maintenance in May and 52% for the first cut in June.

Recession shows up.

Japan and the United Kingdom on Thursday reported the second consecutive quarter of contraction in gross domestic product (GDP), putting two of the world’s largest economies into technical recessions. For now, these are specific cases, where Japan’s economic contraction is linked to the decrease in its population, and that of the United Kingdom to the drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of this economy.

As for the USA, the scenario may be far from that. After all, GDP growth was recorded above expectations in the last two quarters. It has a very advanced economy that was able to provide stimulus to the population during the pandemic and is not dependent on energy from Russia, making it less vulnerable than other countries. Still, there are those who say that the American economy is in recession, but there is no fixed rule to determine this, which may include factors such as an increase in the unemployment rate, a drop in income, a drop in spending or a negative economic growth rate. . Ultimately, those who determine whether the US is officially in recession or not are a group of eight relatively unknown economists.

BlackRock raises $5 billion with Bitcoin ETF.

Speculations behind the much-awaited spot Bitcoin ETF were high. The fact is that the ETF was very, very successful, and BlackRock came out ahead and is currently at the top of the list of recently launched Bitcoin ETFs. Of the eleven ETFs, four of them surpassed the million dollar mark in net inflows, with the highlights being BlackRock, surpassing the 5 billion dollar mark, and Fidelity in second place, with 3.7 billion dollars.

Gold Analysis

The XAAUSD gold contract continues to trade within a symmetrical triangle. It is between the 50 and 200 period moving averages on the daily chart and there is still room for a breakout to occur this week, mainly due to the lack of indicators. We will keep an eye on the extremes of the graphic figure.

XAAUSD, 1D (TradingView)

Euro/USD Analysis

The EURUSD pair continues to descend in the trend of a bearish channel that began in January. It is currently touching the downtrend line and forming an indecision candle, which may signal respect for resistance and continuation of the downward movement. It is worth remembering that it is below the moving averages on the daily chart and today is a day of less liquidity.

EURUSD, 1D (TradingView)

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